As autumn 2025 unfolds, New Zealand’s residential property landscape shows promising signs of revival after weathering significant challenges. With interest rates trending downward, both buyer confidence and market activity are gradually increasing across the country.
Following a prolonged period of value adjustments, the property market is now entering a phase of modest but meaningful recovery. The latest CoreLogic data reveals that national property values rose by 0.5% in March 2025 to $812,195, building on February’s 0.4% increase and marking the strongest back-to-back monthly performance in over a year.
While these figures signal improvement, we’re witnessing a measured recovery rather than a dramatic rebound. The national average asking price sits at $851,090, according to realestate.co.nz data—still down 4.7% from last year but stabilising with a 0.8% month-on-month increase. This suggests a market carefully finding equilibrium after considerable turbulence.
One striking aspect of the current recovery is its uneven distribution throughout New Zealand. The Auckland region is showing renewed vitality with a 0.6% value increase, particularly in North Shore, where growth reached 0.9%. Similarly, encouraging performances have emerged in Christchurch (0.8%) and Hamilton (0.9%), while Wellington trails with more conservative growth of 0.3%.
Not all regions are participating equally in this upswing, however. Dunedin and Tauranga have yet to gain significant momentum, with their markets remaining relatively flat or experiencing slight declines. This patchwork of performance reinforces the importance of local market knowledge when navigating property decisions in the current environment.
Among the provincial markets, Whanganui stands out with 0.8% growth, while Gisborne’s substantial 23.8% increase in new listings year-on-year signals renewed confidence among property owners in previously hesitant regions.
Perhaps the most defining characteristic of today’s market is the unprecedented level of available properties. With 36,870 homes listed nationwide—a ten-year high representing a 10.9% increase from March 2024—buyers enjoy considerable selection and negotiating power.
This abundance of inventory coincides with a 5.0% year-on-year rise in new listings (12,029 properties), indicating that seller confidence is returning despite the competitive environment. Interestingly, property sales velocity has improved slightly, with homes spending less time on the market in March compared to February—a subtle but significant indicator of strengthening demand.
Industry professionals have noted this gradual shift. Market analysts observe that while conditions still favour buyers, the foundations for a more balanced market are taking shape. Properties are increasingly attracting multiple interested parties, particularly those offering good value or energy-efficient features.
The Reserve Bank’s policy adjustments have played a crucial role in stimulating market activity. With the Official Cash Rate now at 3.75% and an anticipated cut to 3.5% in April, mortgage affordability has improved considerably. Most financial institutions are offering two-year fixed rates around 4.99%, with one-year rates expected to decrease further in the coming months.
This timing is particularly fortunate as many New Zealanders face mortgage renewals in the first half of 2025. The improved lending environment creates opportunities for first-home buyers who had previously been priced out, as well as existing homeowners looking to upgrade or refinance under more favourable terms.
However, contextual challenges remain. While more manageable than in 2022-2023, interest rates still exceed pre-pandemic levels, presenting ongoing affordability hurdles, especially in high-value markets. Additionally, economic uncertainties—including potential global recession risks stemming from international trade tensions—could influence the pace and extent of recovery.
Looking forward, property values are projected to increase by approximately 5% throughout 2025, according to industry forecasts. This moderate growth trajectory suggests a sustainable recovery rather than another boom-bust cycle. Most experts anticipate more substantial price growth emerging in 2026-2027 as the market fully stabilises.
For prospective buyers, current conditions offer a window of opportunity with expanded choice and improved affordability. Sellers, meanwhile, can take heart in strengthening activity levels compared to the challenging market of 2023-2024, though realistic pricing remains essential given the competitive inventory landscape.
The market’s resilience—particularly among first-home buyers who have navigated stricter lending conditions with remarkable determination—speaks to the enduring importance of property ownership in New Zealand’s cultural and economic framework. As regulatory changes and economic conditions continue to evolve, the property market appears poised for sustained, if measured, recovery.
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